Climate change and maize shortages in Africa by 2050

From your observations of the December-January weather over the years, do you think the harmattan is getting stronger, weaker or just the same?  If you can give an answer, then you have witnessed climate change!   According to IPCC, climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer.   Monitoring climate change over time helps us measure its impacts on our life, however, we need to predict the possible future effects on our lives for proper planning and adaptation.  If our weather is chaotic and difficult to predict as reported by Fuwape and her team, how do we know tomorrow's weather?

Models are abstract representation of real life events.  Using past weather records, scientists have developed models to predict future weather conditions for different regions of the world.  These models use previous patterns and other factors affecting weather to predict future weather conditions.  Predicting future climates will help in quantifying the effect of tomorrow's weather on different aspects of our lives.   Burke and his colleagues tried to determine how future weather conditions will affect agriculture, specifically cereals production, in West Africa using a model developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).   The authors concluded that "the majority of African countries will have novel climates over at least half of their current crop area by 2050."  This means that by 2050, many parts of Africa will have climatic conditions that is different from what they have now and the future climate will not support half what is grown now.   Specifically, only 14% of temperature in African countries that grow maize will be similar to what we are experiencing now.  This is expected to reduce to 3% by the year 2075.  The temperature will be hot such that maize will not be able to grow.   Similar results was obtained for millet and sorghum over Africa.  This portends a problem for agriculture in Africa especially Nigeria where cities have been eating into agricultural farmlands (see report here).

Several attempts have been made by organizations and bodies within Nigeria to draw a plan or strategy for climate change.  Elias and Omojola after examining the plan of Lagos state towards climate change concluded that "these efforts are haphazard, largely top-down, uncoordinated and fragmented."  There is a recent plan by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture towards mitigating climate change which i currently do not have access to.  The authors concluded that "increased understanding of the substantial threat climate change poses to agriculture has not been met with a similarly improved understanding of how best to respond."  There is the need for Federal and State governments to work with Agricultural Scientists, meteorologists and other relevant researchers in academics to work towards a plan.  The plan should include development of a genebank for suitable crops.

References

Burke, M. B., Lobell, D. B., & Guarino, L. (2009). Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation. Global Environmental Change, 19(3), 317–325. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.04.003

Peter Elias, Ademola Omojola (2015) Case study:  The challenges of climate change for Lagos, Nigeria,  Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Volume 13, April 2015, 74 - 78, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2015.02.008

 

Fuwape, I. A., Ogunjo,  S T., Oluyamo,  S S., Rabiu,  A B (2016). Spatial variation of deterministic chaos in mean daily temperature and rainfall over Nigeria. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, In Press. http://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1867-x